The chicken rice index and Singapore’s cost of living

Three years ago, I wrote about how distant events can have an impact on our daily lives.

“The impact of those cascading effects on the humble chicken rice, a popular dish in Singapore, was apparent.”

In 2022 ruptures in global commodity prices triggered other responses including a decision by Malaysia to ban chicken exports, India banning wheat exports and Indonesia banning palm oil exports.

The impact of those cascading effects on the humble chicken rice, a popular dish in Singapore, was apparent.

In May 2022, the cost of a chicken rice set at the Market Street Hawker Centre, consisting of steamed chicken, roast pork, gizzard and an egg, cost me S$5.50.

Since then, I have been tracking the price of this set periodically to measure how global events have affected inflation and the cost of living generally.

In June 2022, I ordered the same set but without the gizzard, as the stall had run out of it. It is not clear if this was due to supply chain issues, but the cost was still S$5.50. This suggested the price increase had already started.

On my next visit in November 2022, the price of the full original set had risen to S$6.50. Was the S$1 or 18.2 per cent price increase justified?

Looking into the prices for the direct ingredients used in making a plate of chicken rice showed significant price increases in late 2022 compared to the previous year. The cost of a whole chilled chicken increased by 48 per cent, while egg prices rose by 25 per cent and cooking oil costs increased by 11 per cent.

The price of premium Thai rice was unchanged, which likely prevented the price of my chicken rice set from increasing even higher.

Thankfully, this was the peak of the chicken rice index.

At my next visit in April 2023, the price had dropped to S$6 for the same full set, where it has remained till today. Singapore has actively diversified its sources of chicken and egg imports, alongside adjusting and adapting its supply chains.

In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages monetary policy through the exchange rate, allowed the currency to appreciate, helping to dampen the cost of imported products. Consequently, the price of raw chicken fell 11 per cent from its peak, with cooking oil prices down 19 per cent, rice down almost 5 per cent and eggs down almost 4 per cent.

This allowed the stall operator to reduce the price from S$6.50 to S$6 and keep it there.

This is still higher than the price paid in mid-2022, but it is reasonable considering the price for raw chicken is still higher now compared to three years ago, and the prices for utilities and rents have also risen during that time.

Absent any unexpected price shock, my chicken rice meal should stay at S$6 for a while, consistent with the moderation in overall inflation in Singapore after the big increases in the last three years.

Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research, Institutional, ANZ